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Trading Styles
Technical Trading
By Nick Sudbury*
Technical analysis is widely used to augment many different trading philosophies, but in a broad sense, can also be thought of as a trading style in its own right.
Technical traders study price movements through the use of charts. By identifying particular known patterns, often in conjunction with technical indicators, adherents believe it is possible to gauge the prevailing market sentiment and, hence, gain
some insight into how the price is likely to change.
Popular Patterns
One of the best-known formations is the head and shoulders, where a high (the left shoulder) is followed by a higher high (the head) and then a lower high forming the right shoulder. This pattern often heralds a breakout from the neckline
the line linking the lows on either side of the head.
Another popular pattern to look for is a congestion area, which is
essentially a consolidation phase following a move. The majority
of these tend to resolve themselves in the same direction
as the preceding trend.
Technical traders generally use indicators in conjunction with the charts
to help gauge the strength and direction of the underlying
price movement. An indicator is solely designed to help interpret
the price movements; it is not in any way intended to be a
substitute.
Which Ones (and How Many) to Use?
Traders should not be misled by the precision and, in some
cases, the complexity of the formulae used to calculate the
indicators because the final interpretation inevitably remains
more of an art than a science. One aspect of this is learning
just which of the hundreds of indicators to actually use.
The mere fact that there are so many indicators reveals the truth
of the matter, namely, that some work better in certain circumstances
than others. Because there is no universally accepted view
as to which ones are the best, most traders evolve their own
short list of favorites that they become familiar and confident
with.
As tempting and as easy as the technical analysis software makes
it to keep adding extra indicators to the charts, it is most
certainly not a case of "the more the better." Few
traders use more than two or three in a single analysis because
any more would just be likely to confuse the issue.
The final selection is largely a question of personal preference
and experience, but most would agree that it makes sense to
pick indicators that complement each other rather than those
that measure the same phenomena. For example, there would
be little point in using both Stochastics and RSI because
both measure momentum and have overbought / oversold levels.
One of the most popular and intuitive indicators is the moving
average. This simply calculates the average (usually closing)
price of a security over a specified period of time. Moving
averages are lagging indicators and are used to emphasize
the direction of the trend. For example, when a stock moves
below its moving average, it is a negative trend and visa
versa. Views differ as to the best periods to use, but, for
longer-term traders, the 50- and 200- day moving averages
are among the most widely watched.
Combining Moving Averages and the Relative Strength Index
A chart combining two moving averages provides one of the
most popular ways to identify a trading signal. If the shorter
(faster) moving average moves above the longer (slower) moving
average, this represents a buy signal, while a sell signal
is given when it dips below.
The number of signals generated depends on the length of the moving
averages -- the shorter, the greater the number of signals
but the more that will be false. Because of this, moving averages
are best used in conjunction with another indicator, such
as the popular Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The RSI compares the number of days that a stock finishes higher
against the number that it ends lower. In value, it ranges
from 0 to 100 with, in general, a stock being considered overbought
if it reaches 70 a sign to consider selling. Similarly,
if a security approaches 30, it is usually regarded as a buy
signal. In a true bull or bear market, these numbers tend
to be changed to 80 and 20, respectively.
The majority of analysts use a 9- to 15-day RSI. The shorter the
number of days used, the more volatile the indicator but,
also, the more susceptible it becomes to big surges or falls
in stocks dramatically affecting the RSI, potentially resulting
in false buy or sell signals.
The strength of the RSI as a complementary measure to the moving
average can be seen from the chart of the Dow taken from Market
Center. The index crossed above its 20-day moving average
on August 18th, indicating a positive trend. The Dow continued
to rise, peaking at a high of 10,363 on September 7th. At
this point, the nine-day RSI, which is shown along the bottom
of the chart, hit the overbought level of 70.409, heralding
a subsequent fall in the index back toward the lagging moving
average indicator.
Nick Sudbury is a financial journalist who has worked both as a fund
manager and as a consultant to the industry. He has an MBA and
is also a chartered accountant.
*Reprinted (and modified) with permission from Nick Sudbury
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