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The Basics of Forex Trading
Charting the U.S. Dollar with Other Currencies
By Raghee Horner, Founder / Lead Trader, EZ2TradeSoftware.com*
When trading Forex, we never really "directly" trade
the U.S. dollar even though we have six U.S. dollar pairs
that allow us to do so indirectly. These pairs are known as
the "majors". The majors account for approximately
90% of daily trading.
The strength or weakness of the U.S. dollar can be charted with
the U.S. Dollar Index (symbol $DXC). Let's take a look at
the U.S. dollar (USD) on a chart.

Starting with this view of an intraday 180-minute chart, we see that
the USD is currently trading just below the current downtrend
line. Note that prices also bounced off the .500 Fibonacci level.
So, now, let's look at the corresponding EUR / USD chart at that
same point on the chart. The market is almost the inverse
of what we saw on the $DXC. It isn't a stretch to say that,
if the $DXC breaks above the downtrend line, the EUR / USD
chart will break down below the uptrend line.

What we're talking about here is the next level of confirmation.
I especially find this relationship powerful when looking
at the EUR / USD. Will all markets have such an exact correlation?
No! However, it is powerful to see where the U.S. dollar is
trading in relation to the other currency in the pair. It
is just as important to see and measure the trendlines, support
and resistance of the USD so that you can see whether it is
strong or weak versus the other currencies.
Here is a simple table showing when the U.S. dollar is strong versus weak:
| Symbol |
If the chart is in an uptrend, the dollar is
|
| EUR / USD |
weaker |
| GBP / USD |
weaker |
| AUD / USD |
weaker |
| USD / CHF |
stronger |
| USD / CAD |
stronger |
| USD / JPY |
stronger |
You'll see that, when the U.S. dollar is the base currency, the U.S.
dollar is strong when the underlying chart is in an uptrend
(i.e., USD / CHF).
Now that we have a general understanding of the relationship between
these currencies and the U.S. dollar, it is only natural that
the next step is to analyze the levels. Now, please don't
assume that we are merely matching uptrends with downtrends
or support with resistance. It's not that simple. There can
be a correlation between a downtrend in one market (which
is really resistance) and support in another market.
With that in mind, take a look at the following intraday chart
of the British pound. This is the same interval and time frame
as the U.S. dollar chart we looked at previously.

There are two near-term support levels (green arrows) and two near-term
resistance levels (red). After we've looked at the U.S. dollar
chart and the British pound chart, we find that the most immediate
correlation is between the downtrend line of the USD and the
.886 Fibonacci level of the GBP.
For both the EUR and GBP, we can see that the $DXC chart could
be confirmation, considering that, when the EUR and GBP are
in uptrends, the U.S. dollar is weaker. In both of these charts,
the U.S. dollar is the second currency.
Let's examine another market where the U.S. dollar is the base currency.

When looking at the chart of the Swiss Franc (symbol: CHF A0-FX)
we see that there is no near-term support or resistance level
to correlate with the $DXC chart. The Swiss Franc is in "neutral"
territory (no pun intended!); it is trading between the .786
Fibonacci level (support) and the .618 (resistance).
Prices were also consolidating between an uptrend and downtrend,
slowly forming a triangle. From this view, we see that there
is no confirmation here there is no trade regardless
of what the U.S. dollar is doing. And, sometimes, knowing
when not to trade can make all the difference.
Let's take a look at another market where the U.S. dollar is the base currency.

The circled area shows where USD / JPY has one major and two minor
downtrend lines to contend with. This chart does have correlation
with the $DXC chart. Although the market has pierced all three
downtrends, we have yet to close above it. Because we know
that, if the USD / JPY chart is in an uptrend, the dollar
is strong, this could potentially be excellent confirmation.
All entries and exits are about timing. Price action, price patterns
and confirmation are the keys to answering the questions of
when and why to enter and exit the market.
Raghee Horner is an experienced trader with more than 15 years in the
markets. She has taught her brand of technical analysis and
charting strategies to students all over the world and is an
internationally known author, emphasizing charting and price
action. Website: www.EZ2TradeSoftware.com
*Reprinted (and modified) with permission from Raghee Horner of EZ2TradeSoftware.com
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