|
These four sets of technical analysis can be added to your eSignal application to extend your decision support capabilities. The cyclePack indicators help you make projections about your issue's likely future performance based on the hidden cycles it extracts from its past performance. EZ2Trade automates several popular charting tools, including Fibonacci levels and candlestick patterns, among others, and provides entry, stop loss and profit targets.
The Hawkeye Indicators help reduce the number of drawdowns while they analyze the market's likely direction. The Krutsinger Trading System provides entry and exit points for trading the NASDAQ 100 (as an index or individual stocks), as well as strategies for a trade gone wrong.
1. Chris Kryza's cyclePack
This unique collection of cycle analysis tools and indicators is brought to you by Divergence Software, Inc. cyclePack uses state-of-the-art digital signal processing (DSP) techniques to extract the cycles that exist in your financial data and gauge their significance. This information is then used to make projections as to how the security you are currently charting is likely to behave in the future.
What Does cyclePack Do?
The information cyclePack extracts from your financial data is used to make forecasts as to how the security you are charting is likely to behave over the next several bars (or longer).
While we would agree that there is no way to predict the future, the value provided by the cycle analysis process is that it can highlight likely short-term turning points, as well as provide an indication of future market direction. Think of cycle analysis as an enhancement to traditional technical analysis techniques.
Why Cycle Analysis?
First of all, we are not talking about lunar cycles, planetary cycles, solar cycles or anything like that. We are talking about digital signal processing techniques and the science of time series analysis.
Cycles are present in all time series and in all time frames. Whether you know it or not, you make decisions based on cycles every trading day. Each time you add an indicator to your chart and set the length of that indicator, you are making a decision based on cycles.
Each time you make a determination that a particular security will either start turning up in price or begin heading down, you are making a decision based (at least in part) on cycles. Cycles are everywhere in our price data. Yet, for most traders, the concept of cycles is a poorly understood one, and the cycles themselves are generally hidden from view.
Cycle analysis is the process of cleaning and filtering a time series (in our case, a series of security price data) and applying spectrum analysis techniques to extract the cyclical content. Once the cyclical components have been revealed, we can examine them and isolate the strongest and / or best-behaved cycles. With that information in hand, we can then make educated projections in terms of how the security being analyzed will behave in the future. Cycle analysis can be a powerful tool when used in conjunction with existing technical analysis indicators and methods.

Descriptions of the cyclePack © Indicators
cyclePack consists of four indicators that perform slightly different tasks.
- cycleAnalyzer -- The cornerstone of the cyclePack c ollection, it displays the individual cycles extracted from your price data in a graphical format.
- cycleProjector -- The cycleProjector takes the individual cycles and combines them into a synthetic time series and projects this time series into the future. It is useful for highlighting significant near-term turning points and can also provide a good estimate of overall direction.
- cycleProjectorXT -- This indicator is identical in function to the cycleProjector , except that it uses a more detailed approach to extract the cycles and create the synthetic time series.
- cycleMABands -- This indicator uses Linear Prediction algorithms to assist in the creation of Hurst-type price channels.
Visit our Specialty Scripts group in the eSignal File Share forum: Specialty Scripts http://share.esignal.com/groupcontents.jsp?folder=&groupid=114
And, for more information about the cyclePack, visit the eSignal page on our website: www.sr-analyst.com <http://www.sr-analyst.com>
2. Raghee Horner's EZ2Trade
EZ2Trade uses Fibonacci levels in its analysis to provide entry levels, stop loss levels and profit targets.
The EZ2 Trade Charting Collection is a set of tools that allow traders to automate:
- Trendlines
- Support and resistance
- Fibonacci levels
- Minor highs and minor lows
- The wave
- Candlestick patterns
Each of these charting tools is used in the EZ2 Trade Three-Step Trading Plan, which is sent to each subscriber. Effective for trading intraday and end-of-day Forex, futures and stocks, these tools bring together the best of classic charting with the automation of eSignal EFS.
The EZ2 Trade Charting Collection, along with the Three-Step Trading Plan, was developed to take the guesswork out of entries, stop-loss levels and trading targets. Each of these charting tools automatically adjusts with price and can also be used as a training tool with eSignal's Replay feature.


3. Hawkeye Indicators
These four indicators are user-configurable and analyze the likely direction of the market while minimizing drawdowns:
Hawkeye Stops, Hawkeye Trend, Hawkeye Volume and Hawkeye Volume Radar.
Descriptions of the Hawkeye Indicators
Hawkeye Stops
There are two Hawkeye stops -- Near and Far. As long as the Hawkeye Volume is positive (green), use the Far Stop.
If the Hawkeye Volume turns white or red, use the Near Stop. If the Near Stop swings above market (showing congestion),
use the Far Stop. In other words, the system uses the far stop, but, when the Hawkeye Indicators show weakness,
the Near Stop is then used, ensuring that you exit near the top of a trend run.
Hawkeye Trend
The Hawkeye Trend shows the market trend. Green equals bullish, red equals bearish, white equals congestion and
black equals Add to your position.
Hawkeye Volume
Conventional volume analysis is extremely difficult to interpret. What the Hawkeye Volume achieves is smoothing
of volume to show bullish, bearish or neutral volume. Green equals bullish, red equals bearish and white equals neutral.
Hawkeye Volume Radar
Volume is the fuel that drives the market, and, although our main volume indicator is very good at detecting the
directional movement of volume, there is still a need for an indicator to show those special times when there is a significant volume change -- which could be the precursor to market change. There are three dots plotted: Cyan = light volume, yellow = high volume and red = ultra-high volume.
Hawkeye Trading Rules
These trading rules apply to the use of the 4 Hawkeye Indicators available as add-ons to the eSignal application. The examples given subsequently describe entering a long position. The reverse applies for entering a short position.
New Position Rules
Futures -- We suggest trading daily. Take a new position when the daily Hawkeye Trend, the daily Hawkeye Volume, and both daily Hawkeye Stops are green and the close of the current bar is greater than the open. These rules are all automatically included in the Hawkeye Trend -- which is your lead indicator.
Also, check that the weekly / monthly Hawkeye Trend and Hawkeye Volume are showing signs of strength.
Stocks -- We suggest trading weekly. Take a new position when the weekly Hawkeye Trend, the weekly Hawkeye Volume, and both weekly Hawkeye Stops are green and the close of the current bar is greater than the open. These rules are all included in the Hawkeye Trend -- which is your lead indicator.
Also, check that the daily / monthly Hawkeye Trend and Hawkeye Volume are showing signs of strength. In addition, check to make sure you are trading in harmony with the underlying stock index (i.e., only go long when the Hawkeye Trend on the stock index is green).
Hawkeye Stop Rules
If the Hawkeye Volume goes white or red, use the Hawkeye Near Stop value.
If the Hawkeye Near Stop swings above market -- showing congestion -- use the Hawkeye Far Stop.
Wide-Ranging Bar Rule
Do not enter a new trade or add to an existing position if a wide-ranging bar is displayed (Note: The bar will automatically be painted magenta). Wait until the next bar. If the close of that current bar is greater than the open, enter. If not, wait until a bar has a close greater than the open.
Exit Trade Rules
You should be stopped out by one of the Near or Far Hawkeye Stop values 90% of the time. You may decide to exit a trade owing to fundamentals reasons (i.e., crop reports, interest rate announcements, etc.). Exit all contracts simultaneously.
Adding to Position Rules
Futures Formula: 1, 3, 2, 1 = 7
The formula shown previously should be implemented in this way: You start with one contract; then, add 3 and so forth. Add to the position when the price has closed above the first ATR line, the current bar volume is green, the close is greater than the open and your position is in profit. Add when each subsequent ATR is breached according to the rules described previously. If you are stopped out during a trade and the trend resumes, you should re-enter only using one contract and do not use the adding formula.
Stocks Formula 1, 1, 1 = 3
The formula shown previously should be implemented in this manner: You start with whatever size your money management allows and then add twice more with the same amount of stock (providing your first position is in profit). Add to the position with each new close above the ATR lines (providing the volume is green and the close greater than the open). If you are stopped out during a trade and the trend resumes, you should re-enter only using one position with no further additions.
(Note: Only add if your position is in the money. Exit all contracts simultaneously. This formula capitalizes on trend runs, so traders should only be exposed to a small loss [1 contract] at the commencement of a trade.
Money Management Rule
If you find that the Hawkeye Stops are greater then your capital risk per trade, use your money management stop.
Remember to be consistent. Take every trade and don't have an opinion on where the market is going -- you will probably be wrong! Let the market tell you.
4. JoeKrut.com
The Krutsinger Trading System trades the NASDAQ 100 as an index or stocks within the NASDAQ 100.
This new trading system, engineered by Joe Krutsinger, CTA, is the result of 27 years of full-time research. It is an innovative strategy for trading the NASDAQ 100 Index or any of the 100 stocks within that index.
Joe has found an elegant entry technique designed to capture the short-term market turning points in the NASDAQ stocks. His system takes the guesswork out of where to enter, where to exit, and what to do if you are wrong! The entry is so robust that it yields extraordinary profits on the 100 component basket of stocks without added filters or stop logic. This system has been evaluated and received a top rating by Futures Truth!
This strategy is also an always in reversal system. It has no variables. It is never optimized. It can be used
as a market-directional indicator or on stocks to indicate the direction for trading options! Let the developer back
test it on your favorite NASDAQ stock. Simply email Joe Krutsinger, CTA directly with the symbol of your stock
at dsachs@windstream.net and Joe will personally get your report right out to you.
| Total Trade Analysis |
|
6 Months, 1,000 shares all trades, always in JoeKrut.com, 60 min. bars, 64.19% Profitable
|
| April 15, 2004-Sept.1, 2004 4 ½ months |
All Trades |
Long Trades |
Short Trades |
| Total # of Trades |
81 |
41 |
40 |
| Total # of Outlier Trades |
20 |
4 |
16 |
| Total # of Open Trades |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Number Winning Trades |
52 |
28 |
24 |
| Number Losing Trades |
29 |
13 |
16 |
| Max Trade Run-up |
$1,920.00 |
$890.00 |
$1,920.00 |
| Max Trade Drawdown |
($1,430.00) |
($1,430.00) |
($1,268.99) |
| Max Trade Run-up (%) |
3.85% |
1.61% |
3.85% |
| Max Trade Drawdown (%) |
(2.47%) |
(2.47%) |
(2.33%) |
| Avg Trade Run-up |
$332.88 |
$274.05 |
$393.17 |
| Avg Trade Drawdown |
($310.44) |
($307.99) |
($312.95) |
| Percent Profitable |
64.19% |
68.29% |
60.00% |
| Avg Trade (win & loss) |
$62.23 |
$36.87 |
$88.22 |
| Average Winning Trade |
$283.32 |
$185.39 |
$397.58 |
| Average Losing Trade |
($334.20) |
($283.00) |
($375.81) |
| Ratio Avg Win / Avg Loss |
0.84 |
0.65 |
1.05 |
| Largest Winning Trade |
$1,889.00 |
$601.99 |
$1,889.00 |
| Largest Losing Trade |
($944.00) |
($944.00) |
($902.99) |
| Max Consec. Winners |
12 |
7 |
7 |
| Max Consec. Losers |
3 |
3 |
3 |
| Largest Consec. Profit |
$4,650.00 |
$1,440.00 |
$3,396.00 |
| Largest Consec. Loss |
($1,102.00) |
($1,318.00) |
($1,321.00) |
| Largest Consec. Profit (%) |
8.62% |
2.80% |
6.55% |
| Largest Consec. Loss (%) |
(1.90%) |
(2.54%) |
(2.44%) |
Disclaimer Regarding the Many Illustrations of Systems
and Performance Results in This Article:
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND STOCK TRADING. THE USE OF STOP ORDERS DOES NOT GUARANTEE LIMITED LOSS. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING.ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. |
|
|