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I normally don’t put too much weight in the year-ahead forecasts that advisers circulate every December.
But, I will make an exception when it comes to the forecasts of the six newsletters that rank highest on the Hulbert Financial Digest’s Newsletter Honor Roll for 2007. Based on performance over the last 16 years, this honor roll rewards newsletters less for overall returns than for performing well in both up and down markets.
So, it behooves us to pay attention to what they are saying.
Here are the six newsletters, in alphabetical order, along with their 2007 forecasts:
Bob Brinker’s Marketimer. Editor Bob Brinker has been bullish since March 2003, and his model portfolios remain fully invested. However, it appears that Brinker feels the bull market is getting a bit long in the tooth. For example, he is sticking with his longstanding target for this bull market in the “low-to-mid-1400’s range”. And, with the S&P 500 index already in that zone, upside potential would appear to be limited. In this regard, I note that Brinker writes that “a meaningful stock market correction would be necessary in order to set the stage for a decent buying opportunity. In order for this to occur, a decline of at least 5% to 10% would be necessary.”
Investment Reporter. This service is bullish, in part, because it believes that “the U.S. economy is headed for a soft landing, which bodes well for the stock market going forward.” However, the service also points out, “It appears that investors already anticipate this as they have driven share prices up these past few months. As a result, we wouldn’t be surprised to see some profit-taking in the near term. Rather than making large purchases now and then, you’re probably better off continuing to buy gradually, emphasizing quality.”
No-Load Fund Analyst. Editor Stephen Savage reports that the newsletter believes stocks are neither over- nor under-valued. “In general, we still think market valuations are reasonable, despite the run-up in stock prices, thanks to strong earnings. In essence, the market’s rise has, in part, simply helped prices “catch up” to higher earnings. We don’t think earnings growth will remain at the levels we’ve seen in the recent past, but it’s nice to have the valuation cushion that strong earnings have helped provide.”
No Load Fund Investor. Editor Mark Salzinger writes that “we believe the evidence points to higher stock prices in 2007, although it would be an unusual year if there weren’t at least one major correction.”
No Load Fund X. Editor Janet Brown offers no 2007 forecast because the newsletter’s strategy calls for always being fully invested in those mutual funds that have exhibited the greatest recent relative strength.
Value Line Investment Survey. This newsletter is currently recommending that subscribers invest 80 percent of their equity portfolios in stocks. “Sustained economic growth, generally modest inflation, and declining long-term interest rates should be a winning combination for investors through at least the early months of the new year.”
The bottom line? By my reading, two of these six newsletters are outright bullish, three more are on the bullish side of neutral, and one doesn’t offer a forecast. If you had to extract a consensus stock market forecast from these six, it would have to be “cautiously bullish.”
I would note, however, that this consensus is somewhat less bullish than what it was one year ago, on the occasion of my review of the year-ahead forecasts of the newsletters on last year’s honor roll.
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